Food-at-home prices rose 0.1 percent from August 2026 to September 2026. Over twelve months they were up 1.8 percent. Both numbers can be true while a shopper still feels squeezed, and the gap between them is where most of the confusion lives.

Inflation rate versus price level

Food-at-home inflation measures how fast grocery prices are rising. It does not say whether they are falling. In September 2026, grocery prices were 1.8 percent higher than in September 2025, according to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS). Prices were still going up. They were just going up more slowly than before.

Think of a rent notice. A landlord who raises the rent 2 percent after raising it 5 percent last year has slowed the increase. The monthly bill is still higher than it was. Grocery prices work the same way, because each new rise stacks on the level already reached.

Wording matters here. "Food prices rose 1.8 percent" means higher prices. A headline saying inflation slowed describes the pace of change, not a cheaper basket.

What the recent numbers show

Here is the September 2026 picture, as the ERS summary reports it. Read the scorecard in two parts, starting with the monthly and yearly moves.

  1. Food at home: up 0.1 percent from August, up 1.8 percent from September 2025.
  2. Food away from home (restaurants and similar): up 0.2 percent from August, up 3.5 percent from September 2025.
  3. All items in the Consumer Price Index: up 3.7 percent from September 2025.
Side-by-side still of a grocery checkout conveyor and a pair of coin stacks of different heights, suggesting that prices are still rising, just at a slower pace.
Side-by-side comparison of September 2026 year-over-year changes: food at home 1.8 percent, food away from home 3.5 percent, all items 3.7 percent.

Groceries rose more slowly than the overall index over that year. Eating out rose faster than groceries. A longer view adds context, listed here as the second part of the scorecard.

  1. Average food-at-home prices were 2.3 percent higher in 2025 than in 2024.
  2. The 20-year historical rate is 2.6 percent per year.
  3. So 2025 came in under the long-run pace, yet households still paid more.

A smaller-than-average increase is still an increase. It is a milder climb, not a step down.

Why one average can hide large differences

The grocery average is a blend. In 2025, eggs rose 21.9 percent and beef and veal rose 11.6 percent. Sugar and sweets rose 5.1 percent and nonalcoholic beverages rose 3.8 percent. Meanwhile fats and oils fell 0.8 percent and fresh vegetables fell 0.4 percent. Dairy rose just 0.8 percent, against a 2.1 percent average from 2006 to 2025. Cereal and bakery items rose 1.0 percent, against 2.8 percent over 20 years.

Eggs show how a trend can mislead. Their prices fell steadily from April through December 2025. The yearly average was still 21.9 percent above 2024. ERS notes that the avian influenza outbreak, which began in 2022, pushed egg prices up in early 2025. A falling line can sit on a very high starting point.

This matters at the checkout. A household that buys a lot of beef or eggs may feel a different change than the headline. Someone who mostly buys dairy and bread may feel less. The category numbers matter as much as the total.

How the measures are produced and forecast

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative market basket of goods and services. The food CPI covers retail food prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks prices paid to domestic producers for their output. Farm-level and wholesale food PPIs get special attention in forecasting, because they show cost pressure that may reach shelves later.

ERS uses both to forecast annual percentage changes in food prices up to 18 months ahead. It updates them monthly with new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts are estimates. They do not promise what any store will charge.

What the sources do not explain

The research leaves real gaps. It does not explain the broader causes of grocery price increases beyond the avian influenza example. Labor, transportation, energy and weather costs are not covered, so no one should assume a cause for a given price jump.

It also lacks a full category breakdown for September 2026. It does not connect national averages to any one household's basket, and it does not compare past forecasts with what actually happened. For your own budget, check official sources such as the ERS and BLS pages, or ask a qualified professional. This article is educational only.